{"source":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/en/track-record","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-11-13T22:10:21.785Z","asOfMeaning":"latest recorded call date; not a fresh market check or outcome-review date","audit":{"kind":"editorial-outcome-log","total":15,"scored":8,"hits":5,"hitRate":62.5,"pending":7,"other":0,"latestCallDate":"2026-08-08","registration":{"documentedScored":0,"missingEvidence":8,"independentlyVerified":false,"criteria":"Publication timestamp and HTTPS evidence link, resolution rule, and outcome observation timestamp after publication. Metadata coverage is not proof that the source was public then."},"returnEvidence":{"auditedTrades":false,"verifiedNetReturn":null}},"scored":8,"hits":5,"hitRate":62.5,"note":"Editorial outcome log; historical hit labels are not audited trades, net returns or calibrated future probabilities. Publication evidence coverage is separate. Not investment advice.","entries":[{"date":"2026-08-08","verdict":"pending","call_en":"Optical-transceiver top forming in Jul–Aug 2026: all six top-zone checklist items lit (record volume, retail slogans, sold-out narrative, Innolight's mega HK IPO — the same pattern that marked the memory and space tops). No 10x from here; optics' real window is its own next cycle bottom.","call_zh":"光通信主题顶部正在 2026-07/08 形成:顶区清单六项全勾(龙头数倍后再新高/中际单日成交 675 亿历史天量/『易中天』散户口号/订单排到 2028 的 sold-out 叙事/二线 AAOI 补涨且创纪录营收仍亏损/中际港股近年最大 IPO=SKHY-SPCX 模式第三次上演)。此位置无十倍;光通信的十倍窗口在它自己的下一个周期底,比存储的 2027 更远","odds":65,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"证伪(任一):4Q26 后中际/新易盛较 8 月高点再 +30% 且订单上修;或 CPO 时代模块商证明份额与毛利双保持。验证窗口:4Q26-1H27。若判对,光通信出清后按五要素在新瓶颈层(光芯片/光引擎)重筛","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-08-08-1"},{"date":"2026-08-08","verdict":"pending","call_en":"Memory's next 10x window projected for late 2027: pre-registered shopping list (SNDK / MU / SKHY) executes only when three triggers fire — contract prices turning negative, capacity-cut announcements, PS≈1x with price stabilization. Leveraged ETFs banned.","call_zh":"存储下轮十倍窗口预计 2027 中后期打开;购物清单预登记:SNDK(主力弹性王)/MU(均衡)/SKHY(HBM正主,本轮新增美股直买通道);入场三触发器:合约价环比转负(按 95%→63-75%→13-18% 减速轨迹预计 4Q26-1H27)→大厂减产公告→SNDK PS≈1x 或亏损季+周线企稳,触发后分3批/1-2季度建仓;模组类仅确认后小仓,杠杆ETF禁用","odds":60,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"验证:①10月初 TrendForce 4Q26 季报增速是否续降/转负;②若增速重新加速且 SNDK 收复 $2000,顶部判定错,按回补条款进场并认错;③2027 若窗口如期打开,检验清单执行纪律","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-08-08-2"},{"date":"2026-08-07","verdict":"pending","call_en":"Sector-wide scan: spatial computing / AI glasses is the second open window (one notch weaker than robotics); low-altitude economy a half-window; solid-state batteries only via second-tier equipment names; seven other tracks closed.","call_zh":"赛道全扫描:空间计算/AI眼镜为第二个开窗赛道(弱于机器人一档),低空经济半窗口,固态电池只看二线设备,其余七赛道(电力设备/光模块/量子/聚变/AI应用/国产芯片/脑机)全部关闭","odds":55,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"验证:①2027 中报时蓝特/水晶的波导相关收入占比是否>20%;②若空间计算池跑输机器人池,则『毛利结构弱一档仍值得开窗』判错;③若淘汰赛道中有标的走出10倍,复盘漏筛原因并建档","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-08-07-1"},{"date":"2026-08-07","verdict":"pending","call_en":"Project-10x stock ranking: tier 1 = Wuzhou Xinchun (screws+bearings, lowest PS, un-named) and Keli Sensing (six-axis force); tier 2 = Moons' (Unitree's sole coreless-motor supplier) and Orbbec; equipment layer (grinders = 46% of a screw line's capex) added outside the pool.","call_zh":"十倍工程标的排序(池内+池外扩展):第一梯队=五洲新春(五要素最全:丝杠+轴承双卡位/特斯拉链/池内最低PS/未被点名)、柯力传感(六维力+未点名=免费Serenity期权);第二梯队=鸣志电器(宇树独家空心杯,确定性高但子池天花板45亿)、奥比中光(唯一已扭亏,引爆最近,但8-19宇树挂牌=热度与共识化同时到来);第三梯队=北特科技、兆威机电(PS16已预付,仅恐慌日);池外新增=设备层秦川机床/华辰装备/日发精机(磨床占丝杠产线成本46%,订单已兑现,但券商25-03已命名此层,涨幅需核)+汉威科技(触觉前沿,仅观察)","odds":55,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"验证:①宇树招股书供应商名单与本排序的重合度(8-10后核对);②2027 前排序内是否出现『量产定点→收入占比>20%』的升级者;③若绿的谐波类已共识标的跑赢本池,则『低共识优先』要素判错,建档认错","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-08-07-2"},{"date":"2026-08-07","verdict":"pending","call_en":"Space theme topped in May–June: SPCX (history's largest IPO, $1.75T) broke issue and sits ~45% off highs — same structure as SKHY at the memory top. Chasing here = paying up in the consensus phase. Falsified if SPCX reclaims $135 weekly AND makes new highs.","call_zh":"太空主题顶部已现于 5-6 月:SPCX 史上最大 IPO($1.75T,6-12)上市即破发(较高点-45%),与 SKHY 之于存储顶同构;RKLB 较 5-27 高点 $150.23 回撤约 50% 印证。当前任何追高太空 = 在共识期付账","odds":52,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"证伪条件(任一):SPCX 周线站回 $135 发行价并创新高;或 RKLB 收复 $150.23 前高。验证窗口:2026Q4。8-8对抗复核:多头攻击显著增强——SPCX 单日+15.8%至$133.11(距$135线1.4%),Q2营收+92%至$78.1亿、Terafab($168亿AI芯片厂)、Argus上调至买入($160)、$1160亿锁定股改结构化释放;信心由约60%下调至52%。防线仍在:距前高$225仍-41%,911.5M股供给悬顶,Argus目标价仍低于前高。若周线收上$135:『顶部已现』降级为『顶部存疑』并建档","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-08-07-3"},{"date":"2026-08-07","verdict":"pending","call_en":"Robotics is the only track in early-mid cycle; any 10x structure lives in low-cap bottleneck-component pure plays, not humanoid leaders. Unitree lists ~Aug 19: no chasing for the first month, by rule.","call_zh":"机器人是当前唯一处于周期中段偏早的赛道,10 倍结构(闪迪五要素)只可能出现在瓶颈部件低市值纯标的,不在整机龙头;宇树 8-10 打新、约 8-19 挂牌,沿用『打新/首日不追,让它先定价一个月』纪律","odds":60,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"验证:宇树挂牌满月(约 9-19)时的估值/破发情况;潜伏池标的是否在挂牌热度中被点名共识化(被点名即丧失低共识要素)","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-08-07-4"},{"date":"2026-07-05","verdict":"hit","call_en":"Storage sector in the late stage of its peak zone: risk outweighs opportunity — distribute.","call_zh":"存储线处于『高峰区间后段』,风险大于机会,应派发","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"7/1-7/2 板块崩盘(费半-6%,SNDK-14%,MU-13%);三星7/7利好出尽-6%再验证","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-05-1"},{"date":"2026-07-05","verdict":"miss","call_en":"IPO-week base case (40%): peers spike before listing, distribute into the spike. Missed — the crash had already happened; I cited stale June-peak data and mis-weighted the scenario.","call_zh":"上市周主情景(40%):挂牌前同业冲高,冲高派发","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"落空:实际7/1-7/2已崩盘,我引用的SNDK $2000+是6月峰值滞后数据——情景权重标错。教训:顶部判定成立时立即派发,不设计『等冲高』剧本;行情数据必须实时化(本次网站升级的直接原因)","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-05-2"},{"date":"2026-07-05","verdict":"hit","call_en":"Cold-reception scenario (25%): pricing discount widens, break-issue (below IPO price) risk rises.","call_zh":"遇冷情景(25%):定价折让扩大、破发风险","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"7/6-7/7走的正是此路径,折让扩至9%+;概率已上调为主情景","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-05-3"},{"date":"2026-07-05","verdict":"hit","call_en":"The 2x-leveraged 7709 suits only short event windows — never hold it long; choppy tape means negative-compounding double drag.","call_zh":"7709只适合事件窗口短线,严禁长持,震荡=负复利双杀","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"7/2正股-9%当日7709约-18%;震荡下跌中损耗持续兑现","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-05-4"},{"date":"2026-07-06","verdict":"hit","call_en":"Weekly check: 0 of 3 liquidation triggers fired; hold the core, de-risk around the event this week.","call_zh":"周检:清仓触发0/3,底仓无需动;本周执行事件去风险","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"8-8结案(验证条件双双到期):当周三触发确为0/3,当周走势(SKHY 7/10挂牌+12.8%)未触发任何清仓线,『事件去风险』方向正确(7/13起板块第二轮大跌)。附记:底仓其后随板块继续缩水,触发①已于7月下旬补响并另行执行——窄口径判断成立,持有成本如实记录","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-06-1"},{"date":"2026-07-07","verdict":"miss","call_en":"Q3 base case (55%): bottoming in the -20% to -35% band; if Micron's late-September earnings don't cut HBM guidance, a recovery rally follows.","call_zh":"Q3基准情形(55%):-20~35%区间筑底,9月MU财报不降则修复上攻","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"8-8结案:正股距高已-52%(7月底最深逾此),-20~35%『筑底区间』被决定性击穿——即便9月后修复,『在该区间筑底』已不可能为真。教训:给情景标概率(55%)但区间下沿离实际底部差17个百分点,区间估计过窄;下行段里对『筑底』的先验应更悲观。此败因已并入方法论第3层(底区三触发器替代区间猜测)","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-07-1"},{"date":"2026-07-13","verdict":"miss","call_en":"Weekly-check aside: 'trend is up this week, lower-high not confirmed.' Missed — SNDK fell 12.6% that same day and the downtrend was confirmed by 7/17. Lesson: in a discipline week, execute the plan, don't editorialize on direction.","call_zh":"周检语境判断『本周趋势向上,更低高点未确认』","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"7/13当天SNDK即-12.6%,全周板块第二轮大跌,7/17 SNDK收$1354破$1745确认下行趋势。教训:纪律周内的『趋势判断』毫无价值且有麻痹风险——派发周只执行派发,不做方向评论;且循环中断3天无人盯守=系统性风险,监控体系必须有心跳检查","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-13-1"},{"date":"2026-07-20","verdict":"hit","call_en":"Storage downtrend confirmed: lower-lows in place (SNDK $1,354 / MU $849); SKHY break-issue below $149 raised to the base case.","call_zh":"存储下行趋势确认:更低低点成立(SNDK $1354/MU $849),反弹=派发机会而非新周期;SKHY破发($149)概率上调为主情景","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"8-8结案:SKHY 7/17 盘中首破 $149,7月末深跌至 ~$118 区,8/7 收 $143.53 仍在发行价下(多源核实带日期)——『破发为主情景』兑现;SNDK 其后 $1354→$1212、下行趋势与『反弹=派发』持续被价格确认。合约价8月报(TrendForce 3Q26 +13~18%)未转负,该子项继续由10月季报验证","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-20-1"},{"date":"2026-07-20","verdict":"pending","call_en":"Weekly check #3: 0 of 3 liquidation triggers; hold the 1/3 core unchanged; buy-back clause suspended — a -37.8% drawdown is a trend break, not a healthy dip.","call_zh":"周检#3:清仓触发0/3,底仓1/3维持不动;回补条款暂停——回调-37.8%属趋势破坏而非健康回调,重启需正股周线收复218.7万或SKHY站稳$170","odds":null,"registrationEvidenceUrl":null,"publishedAt":null,"outcomeObservedAt":null,"resolutionRule":null,"outcome":"验证:8月合约价月报;SKHY $149/$170 双线;9月MU财报","url":"https://invest.agiscorecard.com/forecast/2026-07-20-2"}]}