Investment caseOptimus: the Fremont line was set to start production from late July into August, with an initial capacity target of one million units a year. Model S/X production ended in May to free the line — a burn-the-boats transition.
Size / market capRoughly 180x trailing earnings and 14x revenue — a valuation that already prices in years of successful Robotaxi and Optimus execution.
Scarcity / moatThe only vertically integrated humanoid player: chips, vehicle, data and factory under one roof.
CompetitionUnitree (5,500 units shipped in 2025, first worldwide), Figure, UBTech.
RiskProduction timelines here have slipped repeatedly, and press coverage already questions whether there is more promise than progress.
Research framework, not investment advice. Specific levels, stops and sizing are Pro content.