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🛡 Red-team desk
Before a call enters the public ledger it survives multiple bull-vs-bear rounds (Layer 7 of the method): each side attacks at full strength, a referee assigns survival odds, and anything under 50% is rejected. When material counter-evidence lands, confidence cuts are published the same day (e.g. the space-top call, 60% → 52% on Aug 8, 2026). Below: the live attack-and-defense state of every open call.
📮 Subscribe to the outcomes, not the opinionsOne email when confidence moves, a falsification line is hit, or a call is graded — and not otherwise. A checkable promise: every email maps to a real ledger change.
Aug 8, 2026 ·
survival odds
Optical-transceiver top forming in Jul–Aug 2026: all six top-zone checklist items lit (record volume, retail slogans, sold-out narrative, Innolight's mega HK IPO — the same pattern that marked the memory and space tops). No 10x from here; optics' real window is its own next cycle bottom.
Aug 8, 2026 ·
survival odds
Memory's next 10x window projected for late 2027: pre-registered shopping list (SNDK / MU / SKHY) executes only when three triggers fire — contract prices turning negative, capacity-cut announcements, PS≈1x with price stabilization. Leveraged ETFs banned.
Aug 7, 2026 ·
survival odds
Sector-wide scan: spatial computing / AI glasses is the second open window (one notch weaker than robotics); low-altitude economy a half-window; solid-state batteries only via second-tier equipment names; seven other tracks closed.
Aug 7, 2026 ·
survival odds
Project-10x stock ranking: tier 1 = Wuzhou Xinchun (screws+bearings, lowest PS, un-named) and Keli Sensing (six-axis force); tier 2 = Moons' (Unitree's sole coreless-motor supplier) and Orbbec; equipment layer (grinders = 46% of a screw line's capex) added outside the pool.
Aug 7, 2026 ·
survival odds
Space theme topped in May–June: SPCX (history's largest IPO, $1.75T) broke issue and sits ~45% off highs — same structure as SKHY at the memory top. Chasing here = paying up in the consensus phase. Falsified if SPCX reclaims $135 weekly AND makes new highs.
Aug 7, 2026 ·
survival odds
Robotics is the only track in early-mid cycle; any 10x structure lives in low-cap bottleneck-component pure plays, not humanoid leaders. Unitree lists ~Aug 19: no chasing for the first month, by rule.
🚨 System-level tripwireThe memory, space and optics top calls share one macro premise — "AI capex is a cycle, not a new structure". Any two falsifications suspend the whole top-zone pattern for framework review.
Survival odds are editorial estimates, not market odds; sample is small and calibration will be published as it grows. Research framework, not investment advice.
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